Cbonds: Global Bond Market

📈 Cbonds Inflation Outlook May 2026 The global inflation landscape in May 2026 reflects diverging regional dynamics and a highly fragmented approach to monetary policy. In the United States, headline inflation advanced further to 4.2%, driven by a resilient labor market, strong consumer spending, and a recent spike in global energy prices. Conversely, the United Kingdom stabilized completely at 2.8%, maintaining its ground due to a cooling services sector. Within the Eurozone, price pressures remain uneven: Germany's inflation moderated to 2.6%, while France and Italy saw more pronounced accelerations to 2.4% and 3.2% respectively, fueled primarily by rising energy tariffs. China maintains a subdued inflation rate of 1.2%, where economic data points to ongoing real estate sector consolidation and sluggish domestic demand. Crucially, a historic shift is unfolding in Japan, where the Bank of Japan increased its policy rate to 1.0%, continuing its multi-stage transition away from decades of ultra-loose monetary policy in response to evolving domestic price dynamics. Real interest rates continue to vary significantly across borders; Brazil leads major economies with a substantial positive real rate of 9.53% due to its central bank's consistently restrictive stance, whereas developed nations like the US (-0.45%), Germany (-0.2%), and Canada (-0.95%) are currently operating in a negative real interest rate environment. 📥Find this and more in our Research Hub → https://cbonds.com/comments/

#cbondsnew 🇦🇷Argentina Forecasts Are Now Available on Cbonds Consensus forecasts for Argentina’s key macroeconomic indicators are now available on the Cbonds platform. 🔹 USD/ARS Exchange Rate Since January 2026, the Central Bank of Argentina has adopted a new mechanism under which the currency band is adjusted in line with monthly inflation (CPI). Against this backdrop, market participants expect the USD/ARS exchange rate to reach 1,575 by the end of 2026. 🔹 Argentina Central Bank Policy Rate Just a few years ago, Argentina’s policy rate reached a record high of 126% as authorities struggled to curb hyperinflation. Today, the situation has changed significantly, and the central bank has been steadily easing monetary policy. Experts expect the policy rate to decline to 26% by the end of 2026. 🔹Argentina GDP Growth (YoY) According to the latest World Bank forecast, Argentina’s GDP is expected to grow by 3.5% in 2026, with growth accelerating to 4.0% in 2027. Market expectations remain somewhat more cautious, with analysts forecasting GDP growth of 3.15% in 2026 and 3.25% in 2027. 🔹 Argentina Inflation (YoY) According to the Survey of Market Expectations (REM), regularly published by the Central Bank of Argentina, analysts expect inflation to reach approximately 30.5% by the end of 2026, in line with the current consensus forecast. 📍 The latest forecasts for other countries can be found in the “Index Search” section under the “Consensus Forecasts” category, or directly in the “Consensus Forecasts” section on our website.

💼 #CbondsWeekly. All the latest updates in the world of Eurobonds. Last week, US Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the 1Y rising 12 bps to 3.98%, the 2Y up 11 bps to 4.20%, and the 5Y up 6 bps to 4.27%, while the 10Y edged up 1 bp to 4.49%. Corporate bond indices in most regions showed slight declines in yield points (e.g., EM Corporate -2 bps, Middle East Corporate -3 bps, Africa Corporate -2 bps), while sovereign indices also eased (EM Sovereign -4 bps, Latin America Sovereign -4 bps), indicating a modest tightening in credit spreads over Treasuries. Major stock indices advanced broadly, with the S&P 500 up 0.9%, MSCI World up 0.8%, Dow Jones up 0.7%, and the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 surging 2.6%, buoyed by AI optimism, geopolitical breakthroughs (US-Iran peace deal), and a packed rate-decision calendar. The US Dollar Index strengthened 1.1% against a basket of currencies, with the dollar appreciating 0.8% versus the euro, 1.3% versus the pound, and 0.7% versus the yen, while bitcoin slipped 0.5%. Brent crude oil fell 7.7% for the week to $80.59 a barrel, pressured by a potential US-Iran peace accord that is expected to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore Gulf oil flows, while gold dropped 1.7% and the S&P GSCI declined 3.8%. In emerging markets, last week saw notable declines for YPF and Saavi Energia bonds, with YPF falling over 4% after disclosing a repurchase of peso notes, while Saavi dropped nearly 4% as Global Infrastructure Partners agreed to acquire a majority stake, altering its capital structure. On the upside, Ecopetrol bonds gained 3.5% after S&P affirmed its BB- rating with a stable outlook, citing stronger liquidity, and Omniyat Holdings rose over 3% following an S&P outlook revision amid regional credit reviews. Binghatti Holding also climbed 2.4% on record Q1 profit and revenue growth, though Grupo Televisa fell on a Moody's downgrade to Ba2 with a stable outlook. In developed markets, JetBlue Airways bonds led price increases despite S&P Global cutting its credit rating to CCC+ on elevated balance-sheet risk, as the move may have been seen as priced in. Fiserv bonds also gained after the company launched a cash tender offer for its 2027 and 2049 senior USD notes, while Diageo debt rose following news of a major restructuring and cost-cutting initiative under its new CEO. On the downside, Gran Tierra Energy bonds fell sharply as crude oil prices declined, pressuring exploration and production company valuations, and Suncor Energy bonds weakened after a negative earnings surprise weighed on credit sentiment. Warner Bros. Discovery bonds dropped after a disappointing Q1 earnings miss, and CCO Holdings bonds were impacted by upcoming call feature commentary affecting trading dynamics. Bond market news of the last week include European gas prices falling on US-Iran peace deal hopes, though analysts still expect a tight market due to rising Asian summer demand, alongside a broader risk-on rally in Asian stock markets fueled by AI and geopolitical breakthroughs. Research from Ashmore and JP Morgan notes that the approaching US/Iran agreement, which includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, is driving Brent oil down to around $83 per barrel and boosting risk assets. OCBC adds that the signed 14-point MOU between the US and Iran has supported US equities and is expected to gradually restore Gulf oil flows, despite OPEC cautioning against supply overhang projections. Additionally, President Trump's statement that Apple will work with Intel to design chips in America has lifted Intel's stock by 8% in premarket trading. 📥Find this and more in our Research Hub → https://cbonds.com/comments/

#cbondsnew 🆕 ETF & Funds Inflow Calculator is now available on Cbonds We are pleased to announce a new feature on Cbonds – the ETF & Funds Inflow Calculator! The tool allows users to analyze daily inflows and outflows of investment funds over any selected period. Users can choose from predefined ranges, from one week to ten years, or set custom dates for a more detailed analysis. The analysis of fund flows helps investors to: ➡️Assess market sentiment by identifying growing interest in specific sectors, markets, or investment strategies (growth, value, cyclical stocks, etc.) ➡️Identify market trends, including increasing popularity of certain sectors or shifts toward safer assets ➡️Analyze money movements in a particular instrument by tracking actual inflows and outflows and evaluating investment strategies The new functionality enables investors to monitor both individual instruments and the broader collective investment market more efficiently and make timely investment decisions. 🧮 To access the feature, open an instrument page and navigate to the “Inflow Calculator” section or use the quick link in the horizontal menu.